Current and future distribution of species at risk of the Geothlypis genus in Mexico

In this work we modeled the current distribution and projected the future distribution of the three endemic species to Mexico of the genus Geothlypis that are in danger of extinction: G. beldingi, G. flavovelata, and G. speciosa. To model the distribution of the species in the present and in a context of climate change maps were generated from occurrence data product of field work and historical records. We used climatic variables from WorldClim and run the models in MaxEnt. In regard to future models we used the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 climatic scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080. For the analyses of land use and vegetation change we used the national covers of CONABIO series I (1997), IV (2009) and V (2013). The analysis showed a considerable habitat reduction of the three species, in water bodies, clumps of cattails and hard-stemmed bulrushes, due to the increase of agricultural soils, urban areas and human settlements. In the three species the distribution surface has been reduced an average of 39.8% between the years 1880 – 2017 and starting from 2017 is expected than their habitats will be reduced an average of 27.5% in the year 2050 and 52.6% in the year 2080. The fieldwork confirmed this reduction. We conclude that the species faces an alarming situation because of the fragmentation and loss of habitat. Therefore the implementation of conservation strategies that promote the conservation of these three species is urgently needed.